By: Superforecasts and Reverse Income Statements are likely to be more helpful for predicting financial success than a hyper-detailed financial plan for a business that still isn’t even fully understood.
For me, Scott Anthony’s 4 Ps model provides a great “quick and dirty” way to understand whether you are going to reach a big enough population. While your new idea may not have direct comparisons, you can use analogies and benchmarks to make broad assumptions about the solution’s price, the population that could be potential buyers, the penetration into that population that you can hope to achieve, and the purchase frequency. This also ties in with the customer research point that I made earlier, as your estimates around penetration should be heavily informed by primary research into customers’ Jobs to be Done: A Roadmap for Customer-Centered Innovation.
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